Supergirl Expectation
Let’s start with the one clean anchor we actually have… DCU’s first theatrical swing landed.
James Gunn’s Superman (2025) finished at $617m worldwide and $354.2M domestic.
That’s your proof of life number for this new universe… not “billion-dollar or bust,” but solid, profitable, and most importantly—stable.
Now the tricky part is coming up with Supergirl (2026). It isn’t “Superman level” IP heat. So, that changes the math.
Why Supergirl won’t open like Superman
This isn’t a knock on the character. It’s just the reality of the marketplace.
1) Supergirl is not a mainstream box-office brand (yet).
She’s known. She’s not a draw in the way Superman, Batman, Spider-Man, etc. are.
2) Milly Alcock isn’t a household name movie star (yet).
That means the film will lean more on concept, reviews, and audience reception than celebrity pull.
3) Jason Momoa helps especially internationally… but he’s not the title character.
A big co-star can raise awareness and add “event” energy, but it usually doesn’t replace the core draw of the lead and the brand.
4) Release calendar matters.
Supergirl is dated for June 26, 2026.
Summer is opportunity and competition. You can soar… or get crowded out.
The female-led comps: the range is wild (by design)
Here are three clean reference points—same genre lane, very different outcomes:
Wonder Woman (2017): $823.0M worldwide / $412.6M domestic
Captain Marvel (2019): $1.131B worldwide / $426.8M domestic
The Marvels (2023): $206.1M worldwide / $84.5M domestic
That spread is your reminder that gender isn’t the driver momentum and reception are.
Each of those films released into a different franchise temperature, audience trust level, and cultural moment.
The Genre Has Cooled, But Starting to Warm up
The broader superhero genre has clearly been struggling for traction. Average worldwide box office for superhero films sat around $395M in 2023, climbed to $450M in 2024, and ticked up again to roughly $485M in 2025… improvement, yes, but still far from the peak years when these movies were automatic event cinema.
That dip in averages reflects audience fatigue, inconsistent quality, and the fallout from collapsing shared universes. This is exactly why what DC Studios is doing right now matters.
They’re not chasing billion-dollar miracles out of the gate, they’re rebuilding trust.
With 2026 expected to have only about four major superhero releases, each film gets more breathing room, less competition, and a better chance to feel special. That scarcity helps reset excitement, and movies like Supergirl benefit directly from that lighter calendar.
In other words… this is the recovery phase.
Steady performers that audiences actually enjoy are how the genre finds its footing again
And how the DCU slowly pulls fans back after years of burnout.
So what does Supergirl realistically make?
My grounded “three-scenario” range
Using Superman (2025) as the DCU baseline and the female-led comps as volatility markers:
Conservative (soft reviews / crowded summer / weak urgency): $400M–$475M worldwide
Think “people wait for streaming” energy.
Likely (decent reviews + solid audience response + Momoa boost): $500M–$600M worldwide
$550M is a solid smart estimation here.
Breakout (strong word-of-mouth + ‘must-see’ tone + DCU momentum builds): $600M–$675M worldwide
This is the lane where it can threaten Superman’s $616.8M global finish.
My call: $550M worldwide is the most defensible “likely” number
Because it bakes in all the realities
smaller “name brand” than Superman
a lead who’s still becoming a star
a major supporting name who helps but doesn’t define the movie
and the fact the DCU is still rebuilding trust
If Supergirl lands at roughly $550M worldwide, that’s not a failure. That’s a functioning cinematic universe.
Why $550M doesn’t mean “underperforming”
The DCU is still in investment mode.
Warner/DC is trying to
rebuild general audience confidence after the DCEU’s late era inconsistency
retrain people that “DC” doesn’t mean homework or chaos
and prove quality control over multiple releases
In that phase, the win isn’t “every film does a billion.” The win is: each film builds the next film’s ceiling.
A steady $500M–$600M performer that audiences like is exactly how you climb back to “event franchise” status.
I truly believe that Supergirl likely lands around $550M worldwide, with a realistic upside to $600M+ if word of mouth is strong and the film feels like a real event.
If it ends up in the low $500Ms? That’s still a successful step in a universe that’s rebuilding from scratch and not a red alert siren.
